ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: While the type and the number of treatments for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have substantially evolved since the start of the pandemic a significant number of hospitalized patients continue to succumb. This requires ongoing research in the development and improvement of early risk stratification tools. METHOD(S): We developed a prognostic score using epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and treatment variables collected on admission in 130 adult COVID-19 patients followed until in-hospital death (N.=38) or discharge (N.=92). Potential variables were selected via multivariable logistic regression modelling conducted using a logistic regression univariate analysis to create a combined index. RESULT(S): Age, Charlson Comorbidity Index, P/F ratio, prothrombin time, C-reactive protein and troponin were the selected variables. AUROC indicated that the model had an excellent AUC value (0.971, 95% CI 0.926 to 0.993) with 100% sensitivity and 83% specificity for in-hospital mortality. The Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration test yielded non-significant P values (chi2=1.79, P=0.99) indicates good calibration. CONCLUSION(S): This newly developed combined index could be useful to predict mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients on admission.Copyright © 2022 EDIZIONI MINERVA MEDICA.
ABSTRACT
During the first and second waves of coronavirus-19 disease, Sardinia had one of the lowest hospitalization and related mortality rates in Europe. However, in contrast with this evidence, the Sardinia population showed a very high frequency of the Neanderthal risk locus variant rs35044562, considered to be a major risk factor for a severe SARS-CoV-2 disease course. We evaluated 358 patients who had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and 314 healthy Sardinian controls (Italy). Patients were divided according to WHO classification: 120 patients asymptomatic, 90 pauci-symptomatic, 108 with a moderate disease course and 40 severely ill. The allele frequencies of Neanderthal-derived genetic variants reported as being protective (rs1156361) or causative (rs35044562) for severe illness were calculated in patients and controls. The Thalassemia variant (rs11549407), the HLA haplotypes, the KIR genes, as well as KIRs and their HLA class I ligand combinations were also investigated. The rs35044562 and rs1156361 Neanderthal variants revealed a distribution in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) both in SARS-CoV-2 patients and the control population (X2HWE = 0.82, p = 0.37 and X2HWE = 0.13, p = 0.72, respectively). Our findings reported an increased risk for severe disease in Sardinian patients carrying the rs35044562 high-risk variant [OR 5.32 (95% CI 2.53-12.01), p<0.0001]. Conversely, the protective effect of the HLA-A*02:01~B*18:01~DRB1*03:01 three-loci extended haplotype in the Sardinian population was shown to efficiently contrast the high risk of a severe and devastating outcome of the infection predicted for carriers of the Neanderthal locus [OR 15.47 (95% CI 5.8 - 41.0), p<0.0001]. This result suggests that the balance between risk and protective immunogenetic factors plays an important role in the evolution of COVID-19. A better understanding of these mechanisms may well turn out to be the biggest advantage in the race for the development of more efficient drugs and vaccines.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Blood coagulation alterations are frequent in patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), particularly in those with severe forms. We investigated the association between standard parameters of coagulation and in-hospital mortality in COVID-19. METHODS: Demographic, clinical and laboratory data at hospital admission, including prothrombin time (PT), international normalized rate (INR), activated thromboplastin time (aPTT), and D-dimer were retrospectively collected in a consecutive series of 309 COVID-19 hospitalized patients. The associations between parameters of coagulation and in-hospital mortality were investigated with receiver operating characteristics (ROC), multiple regression and Kaplan- Meyer analyses. RESULTS: In the overall population, 220 (71.2%) patients were discharged alive, whereas the remaining 89 (28.8%) died. Non-survivors had significantly higher INR (median: 1.20;IQR: 1.03-1.32 vs. 1.06;IQR: 1.02-1.11, P<0.001), PT (median: 12.0 sec;IQR: 11.1-14.0 vs. 11.4 sec;IQR: 11.0-11.9, P<0.001), aPTT (median: 25.1 sec;IQR: 22.7-29.6 vs. 23.4 sec;IQR: 21.4-25.1, P<0.001) and D-dimer (median: 1.36 μg/mL;IQR: 0.87-4.11 vs. 0.77 μg/mL;IQR: 0.43-1.58, P<0.001). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, both the INR (HR=1.8459;95% CI: 1.0713-3.1806, P=0.027) and PT (HR=1.071;95% CI: 1.0132-1.1303, P=0.015), but not the aPTT and D-dimer, remained independently associated with survival. CONCLUSIONS: Both the PTand INRare independently associated with in-hospital mortality in COVID-19. The clinical utility of these parameters for risk stratification warrants further investigations.